Planes were used in the world wars, then we have 9/11. This is the post 9/11 era where air travel sucks so much.
Similarly:
Drones are now being used in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Eventually, there will be a “9/11” with multiple coordinated drone attacks and then the way drones are treated will be forever changed. Civillian ownership of drones will likely be heavily restricted or entirely banned.
History rhymes.
Eventually, there will be a “9/11” with multiple coordinated drone attacks
Israel has done that repeatedly, westerners just only care about white people
Terrorism is all about terror.
Imagine a major league football or baseball stadium packed to capacity. Two or three drones, each with a relatively small explosive charge surrounded by shrapnel fly in, crash into the spectators, and detonate. You end up with a small number of immediate casualties like what happened at the Boston Marathon. But the stampede of tens of thousands of panicking people trying to rush out of the stadium will probably injure and kill many more. Have a car bomb or two strategically located a couple blocks away where you expect those crowds to run and you’ve succeeded in your terror plans quite nicely…
There will be terrorist drone attacks in the US or Europe, but I highly doubt they will be at a 9/11 scale. The destructive power of a drone is nowhere near the power of a fueled jet, you can get close with a swarm, but that adds several new problems.
- getting high yield explosives is pretty hard. 9/11 stole the bombs on the day, which is much harder to respond to. You could try using drones to take out aircraft on takeoff, but that’s already controlled and monitored airspace.
- getting enough drones to be a large attack isn’t trivial even with readily available parts in small numbers. There’s already systems in place to monitor large orders of potentially dangerous materials like fertilizer or smoke detectors.
- coordinating hundreds of thousands of drones is actually pretty hard to do in a clandestine way. Sanctioned drone shows have problems occasionally while not having to hide and having to avoid countermeasures.
- Drone countermeasures already exist and are deployed for large events like the Superbowl. Target selection to be big enough but still insecure is also difficult. Security is more of a priority for iconic places and not all of it is theater.
The vehicle is almost irrelevant. They can be box trucks, planes, cars, suicide vests, backpacks, parcels, any number of things, including drones. Any mobile form can be brought close to an intended target.
Drones are more of an assassination weapon as far as FPV drones go. They can be built if you have the knowledge from available parts, but do require quite a bit of skill to fly. Their ability to only carry a small charge (yes, there are huge drones, buy flying one of those monsters around is a completely different animal) is probably only going to hurt a couple people or kill one person in particular.
I don’t disagree that they can be used as weapons of terror, however I just don’t see FPV as weapons of mass terror.
OTOH the large winged drones that can be launched from miles away that are essentially “cruise missile” drones could certainly be used as mass terror weapons, but those aren’t the kind used by regular people for fun or photography.
You underestimate the destructive potential of even small drones. Quantity has a quality all its own. Imagine a swarm of thousands of drones, all cheaply built 3D printed things, made by a single individual or small group. They have one task. They fly to a fixed set of GPS coordinates and land. No targeting needed. No AI facial recognition to target some specific politician. No auto-gun mounted beneath a large drone. Just a dirt simple task. They just fly up, over, and down. Once landed, they send a small electrical signal to a small incendiary device, perhaps a thermite charge, installed at the base of the drone. Such drones could be made quite cheaply if made on a large scale.
Imagine fires being started atop the roofs of every building in a city. Oh, and the attack starts with each fire station being attacked by a dozen such drones. Imagine every building in a city being lit on fire simultaneously. Soon a firestorm develops, and the fire starts feeding itself.
Let’s say you needed 10,000 such drones. Maybe you make them for $50 each. That’s $500k to burn down a city. For the cost of a single building you can burn down every other building in a modest sized city.
We are approaching a point where a single determined individual, using the scale of resources regularly available to a single individual, could recreate the firebombing of Dresden.
Yeah, I didn’t need to envision every movie supervillain mastermind’s plot to create havoc and terror. You seriously underestimate the resources needed to pull off such a thing and keep it secret even if it’s technically possible. Why make “10,000” little drones when you can make a half-dozen bigger RC plane types that can do an incredible amount of destruction? The point is to start terror, which requires far less than your elaborate plot and conditions like “facial recognition”. You went off the deep end of a Marvel movie plot to wipe out a city. We all know that just a couple well-placed hits is enough to send the country into a spiral.
oh boy, imagine this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA
Lol I guessed what it was before clicking on it, that video never gets old, just like the dissidents that gets killed.
Oh that hurts to read.
AI alignment is authoritarian now in a very dangerous way. That combined with drones is what scares me. Without reasoning AI is far more dangerous. Politics is pushing it that direction and it will turn on us. Normalizing authoritarianism is mass murder of future millions.
3000 killed and $1T property damage/rescue expenses in a day doesn’t need to be matched by drones to make an impact. A single, Luigi style, untraceable, car or house impact, would make the oligarchy apoplectic. Though car bombs and hand grenades/molotovs have existed for a long time.
3000 killed and $1T property damage/rescue expenses in a day doesn’t need to be matched by drones to make an impact. A single, Luigi style, untraceable, car or house impact, would make the oligarchy apoplectic. Though car bombs and hand grenades/molotovs have existed for a long time.
Not sure why you are comparing 9/11, a terrorist attack that targeted innocent civillians, to the shooting of one evil CEO which is a surgical strike that have resulted in zero innocents dead.
OP is the one that made comparison. Terrorism gets more attention if victim is oligarch.
