Doing the Lord’s work in the Devil’s basement

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Cake day: May 8th, 2024

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  • He’s pretty explicit in that regard. He even added an interesting point at the start of the article : most people he knows who actually work with AI and know shit about it are not boosters. It’s an important distinction that Ed doesn’t ignore.

    He is against the over hype of “AGI” and skeptical of the hundreds of billions that have been poured into it for sinister reasons. He’s not denying that the tech has uses, but rather confronting the value of those uses with their actual, non subsidized cost.










  • If there had been a technological civilization before ours we would notice the depletion of natural resources, especially metal ore and fossil fuels.

    The sad truth is we only have this one shot. If we collapse, there is no way another civilization reaches our technological level. All the easy to access fuel and resources have been pumped and used, so they wouldn’t have the energy and materials required to start industrializing. They’d be stuck on a depleted planet with no realistic way to escape it.






  • I think what’s important is to understand that these things work because they are at a certain scale. Algorithms are notoriously bad at predicting individual behaviour, hence why recommendation engines are a specialization that is far from solved. But when you have large amounts of traffic, the law of large numbers allows you to predict group behaviour with some accuracy.

    So you can’t follow a user around and predict their next move and show them the right ad at the right time. But you can take 50 000 middle-aged males, and bet that at least 10 of them will buy a motorbike if you randomly show them a picture of a guy riding in the sunset. Once you have a good volume of this kind of data you can do some casino math to tilt all your bets slightly in your favour, and start betting 24/7.

    It’s really cold reading, like they do in those mentalist shows. It’s a lot dumber than it looks, but it’s way more effective than you think.