Yeah, it’s like me never having alcohol before and walking into a frat party as a freshman. Sometimes it’s better to come prepared.

People who track performance (like METR, a nonprofit) indicate that progress is, if anything, speeding up. Most people’s use case is so simple they can’t detect the difference. However for cases like complex problem solving, agentic tasks, etc you can in fact see significant progress happening. This should be concerning if you think the world isn’t ready for labor displaced by LLMs.

I think this may be a skill issue on your part.

I’m curious about the scientific consensus continually undershooting. At a certain point, if you’re always updating in one direction, shouldn’t you overcorrect a bit?