20 years though? That’s incredibly generous and unlikely imo.
People are refusing to tackle the infrastructure issue of people charging their cars who do not own single family detached homes. It’s a significant population of people for which owning an electric vehicle is a huge inconvenience. Public charging stations exist, but take significantly longer than the 2 minutes it takes to pump gas.
The second big thing is that people simply don’t replace their cars that often. Might be pulling this out of my ass, but I had read recently that the average person replaces their vehicle every 7-12 years…and it is often not with a brand new vehicle. Considering how electric cars still make a very small percentage of those on the road, I can’t see 100% removal of gas vehicles in 20 years in only a few generations of vehicle ownership change.
The Nissan Leaf came out around 15 years ago as the first big name, somewhat popularish electric vehicle. Yet in 2025 electric vehicles are nowhere close to even 50% of vehicles on the road.
In the more distant future? Sure. 20 years ain’t happening tho.
20 years though? That’s incredibly generous and unlikely imo.
People are refusing to tackle the infrastructure issue of people charging their cars who do not own single family detached homes. It’s a significant population of people for which owning an electric vehicle is a huge inconvenience. Public charging stations exist, but take significantly longer than the 2 minutes it takes to pump gas.
The second big thing is that people simply don’t replace their cars that often. Might be pulling this out of my ass, but I had read recently that the average person replaces their vehicle every 7-12 years…and it is often not with a brand new vehicle. Considering how electric cars still make a very small percentage of those on the road, I can’t see 100% removal of gas vehicles in 20 years in only a few generations of vehicle ownership change.
The Nissan Leaf came out around 15 years ago as the first big name, somewhat popularish electric vehicle. Yet in 2025 electric vehicles are nowhere close to even 50% of vehicles on the road.
In the more distant future? Sure. 20 years ain’t happening tho.
But we’ll see!