All things considered, it has only been about 3 months since Trump took office, I feel like there is absolutely no way that this was just a single craze and from here things will even out.
I feel like until 2028 (or maybe 2026?) S&P 500 is going to look like a roller coaster.
What do you think?
What climb? Its still down 8.61% since he took office. Crazy to celebrate losing almost 9%.
By contrast Biden’s second to last year was UP 24.23%. His last year was up yet another 23.31%.
To put dollars on this:
- If under Biden you’d put $100,000 into the S&P500 on Jan 2023 on Dec 31 2023 you’d have $124,230.
- If still under Biden you left your $124,230 in the S&P500 on Dec 31 2024 you’d have $153,188.01.
- Under trump if you’d put $100,000 into the S&P500 on Jan 2025 by today Apr 13th 2023 you’d have $91,390
I see no cause for celebration here.
And the bond market is in freefall… That’s not good, worse than the sp500.
I agree, yet so many are thinking thibgs are okay now, wild
What Trump is doing now will almost certainly outlast his presidency. One man, just one, has completely betrayed all of the trading relationships this country built over the course of a century, and even better, he did it unconstitutionally and Congress went along with it for their own enrichment, both Democrat and Republican.
Supply lines will be recalibrated. Our foreign partners will make new relationships with more dependable trading partners. (ie, China.) Over the course of the next decade or two, the utter stupidity of what Trump has done will play out to full effect. A few hundred Americans who shoved their heads up Trump’s ass will get richer, but long-term, this is going to hurt most Americans.
If you’re not diversifying your investments geographically you’re no longer diversified at all.
I hope people realize that trump was able to do all this because of years of bad law writing and eroding of the balance of powers. All that concentrated power is great until someone you disagree with sits in the throne you built. It would be nice if after trump, we learn our lesson and vastly shrink the power of the office. Unfortunately , I believe it is likely people won’t realize this and will put even more effort into strengthening the power of that throne after trump is gone, in an effort to more quickly undo his work, which of course means someone will be able to redo the damage even faster at a later time.
Same.
None of this happened in a vacuum. The more you look at how we got here, the more it becomes clear that despite the theatrics we really are under one-party rule.
Biden had the chance to do it and outright refused to place more restrictions on the executive.
I’m not a both-sides’er, but one thing that both parties will absolutely never do is limit their own power, even if it means limiting their opponents simultaneously.
The President and his cabinet are, as we speak, violating the constitution. The Senate is complicit. The House of Representatives is complicit. The Supreme Court is complicit. We are past the point where voting for either Democrat or Republican can meaningfully change anything. We can’t vote to stop the assfucking that we’re getting, we just get to vote for who gets to be on top while it happens. This downward spiral will continue until a revolution occurs or by some miracle a majority of Americans wake up and start voting for new political parties in numbers that could threaten to topple both establishment parties away and implement sweeping government reforms with a strong mandate. Obviously, the way things are going, revolution is far more likely.
I have a feeling that greed will entice folks to continue trading with the US, but also while they diversify their trading partners. This will increase competition and somehow the world will be better off after this clown show is over.
Trump will not make it past the mid-terms. Vance, who is the main mover-shaker behind the 2025 manifesto, will make sure the Senate impeaches Trump for treason, and the fact that under the Constitution he can NOT be President - an then Vance will assume the Presidency. If you think Trump is far-right, wait until Vance takes over. And since Vance was not ELECTED President, he can serve another two full terms - 10 years total. At the end of the ten years, The top 20% income earners - some 70 million Americans - will be living in luxury while the 0ther 80% will be nothing more than indentured servants. The Handmaidens Tale will be mild in comparison.
It could happen, but I think you’re wrong.
Trump is going to live to be 100 years old, like Kissinger did. The problem with your theory is that, after his first term, people know full well that he can’t be controlled.
Vance does not think so. Fact is, Trump is far too EASY to control by those around him. Even Putin knows how to manipulate him.
You say that, and then he’s handing out confidential secrets in casual conversation just to look cool.
Just look at the last week of tariff flip flops.
Trump can’t be controlled, at least until Congress changes hands in 2026.
More likely they 25th him for his very obvious sundowning. Trying him for treason would be too likely to hurt them politically
Vance is in no way worried about what will hurt the Republican party politically. They let that concept lapse when they chose Trump as the candidate. By all previous political reasoning, Trump should have been a disaster politically, but that did not stop them.
The fact that the Supreme Court has already acknowledged that Trump should be disqualified from being President under the constitution for Treasonous actvity feeds right into their hands.
The tariffs alone would be enough to cause a recession. It’s not just that they’re large (even 10% is large by modern standards) it’s mostly that they’re so chaotic. I’ve read that most businesses are avoiding hiring, avoiding any expenditures they can, and just waiting to see what happens. Seeing what happens means keeping cash on hand, which means a drop in GDP. The numbers might have been juiced a bit by people making big orders and trying to get them done before the tariffs come into full effect, but once that’s done the pain is going to be much more visible.
In addition to the tariffs, there’s the firing of federal workers. There are about 3 million in the US, and even if only a fraction have been fired so far, I would bet the rest are cutting back on unnecessary expenses and building up a cash reserve in case they get canned. This will ripple through the economy too.
And then there’s the ICE stuff. People with green cards getting deported for exercising their first amendment rights, scientists being refused entry for a post they made on social media in their home countries, Canadian, German and British people being thrown in an ICE detention facility because of a minor paperwork mix-up. This is going to make tourists and business visitors much less willing to take a chance and visit the US, but this won’t hit until later. Big tourist season is the summer, and so the lack of business won’t show up yet. And some conferences were too close to cancel, but conferences for later in the year might be moved or cancelled.
And there’s the invasion threats against Canada and Greenland, and the tariff wars against Canada and Mexico, and the refusal to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. The biggest visitors to the US were Canadians, Mexicans and Europeans, and all of them are going to be avoiding the country now. And, not just avoiding the country. People are trying to avoid buying US goods and services.
In addition, there are treasuries. Many are held by Japan and China. Even just acting purely rationally, they see the chaos in the US and know the US might not be able to pay its bills, or it might choose not to pay them. The risk has gone up. If they aren’t being purely rational and self-interested, they also know that they can hurt the US by dumping treasuries, so they’re doing that.
And then there are the scientists leaving the US, or choosing not to come. And there are potential international students who see how risky it is for anybody who isn’t white, male and christian. This sort of thing might take decades, but it’s going to hurt the US the most. So many of the world’s most talented people have come to the US and started businesses, but that is definitely going to slow down now.
Even if Trump were impeached and removed, and all his changes were undone with apologies, there has been some permanent damage done to the US by the MAGA majority. But, since it is a majority, since the MAGAs control the supreme court, the senate, the house and the presidency, there’s going to be a lot more damage done before there’s even a hint of a stabilization, let alone a recovery.
I think any rational investor is going to get their money out of the US, and the slight recovery the S&P 500 has seen in the last week is going to be dwarfed by the crash over the next few years.
I was so focused on the tarrifs this week that I forgot about the actual fucking threats of war against close allies 🤦
The close allies didn’t forget, trust me.
I completely agree with you. The real shit show hasn’t even started. The waves from the tsunami will take a while to hit.
i mean he postponed it for 80/90 days or something so i guess this exact thing is going to repeat itself, because to me that looks like it would be the most profitable for trump
I have a very hard time believing that the rest of the world will trust the US for a very long time, if ever, so I can’t imagine our financial situation is going to improve for anyone except maybe the ultra wealthy (as usual). I haven’t even looked at my retirement because it’s not like there’s much I can do besides stress about it.
Climbing? Wait the market opening react to the new semiconductor tariff bomb released 10 hours ago
Or walking back the laptop/phone exclusions, or China halting rare earth shipments, or…
It’s not the tip of the shitberg, it’s the edge of the shittacane, Randy.
I think Trump will dump and pump repeatedly until he’s stopped. Him and his billionaire bum chums will be absolutely raking it in.
Precisely. Vance will use Trump’s erratic behavior as a reason to have him impeached by the mid-terms, and then Vance will fulfill his goal of becoming President.
Wait for some stupidity to reverse it again. Markets like predictability. This president is anything but.
I bet money on it reversing again (SPY). I intend to do so after this particular instance too.
I’m constantly amazed by people who don’t remember his first term.
Are you people on dope?!
Was it this bad this fast? I Seriously don’t recall it being this bad.
It was horrible though. Maybe the COVID19 kinda overshadowed him. Though the time he asked that it be looked into to us UV light inside the body to treat the virus and the time he recommended injecting or drinking bleach were crazy
Was it this bad this fast? I Seriously don’t recall it being this bad.
It was pretty bad pretty quickly, but it was mostly changes in culture. Things like the “unite the right” rally happened pretty early on in his first term. Ultimately though, he was pretty hamstrung by an unreliable, rotating cast of supporting characters in his first term that weren’t all on board with turning the country into Nazi Germany part two.
He’s shed all of those people and now he’s surrounded by dyed in the wool maga. The GOP and the makeup of the supreme court are also drastically different this time.
But it was terrible his first term, so terrible people don’t even remember all or even most of it.
The only difference is he’s got people who do his insane demented ideas now. It took him awhile to get the turd circus going brcause of all the old school fascist republicans he appointed. Evil but competent men who knew when shooting oneself in the crotch was a bad idea.
By 2018 he’d fired them tho.
Also the fact that it’s his second (and last I’m pretty sure but damn I hate that I can’t be 100%) term so you know, “Last time, YOLO!”
His term launched with the Muslim ban. He tried to repeal Obamacare until John McCain stopped him and he had to settle for tax cuts to the rich like every fucking Republican.
He tried to bully Zelenski into providing him dirt on Joe Biden and launched the Biden laptop scandal on no evidence. But that was after telling people to inject bleach for COVID.
The first three years he was largely restrained by a combination of his own incompetence and establishment Republicans. He relied on them to figure out how to govern. The 2025 people saw that andwent to work to see it won’t happen again in their quest for Gilead.
No, he didn’t do anything to touch the economy until 2017 with that tax scam for the wealthy. And we saw the results of that with the Trump slump of the second half of 2018 - where he then bitched at the Treasury to reinstate quantitative easing (which built us up for the inflation shock post covid).
But none of those had such crazy results as tanking the global economy overnight.
Honestly I find all of the covid years kind of hard to remember, and I know a lot of people who feel the same. I bet that Trump 1 mostly gets wrapped up and suppressed with all the rest of the general trauma.
Trump was president for less than a single year during the COVID era.
It was a long ass year though
That “less than a single year” was at the beginning of covid, and his malicious and cavalier response to a global plague hitting american shores led to a million dead Americans.
He was way more impactful about what happened with covid then anyone else, from allowing people to fly in unscreened to the states, from refusing to send out masks and tests, to pushing UV/disinfectant/invermeton, for refusing to help blue states early on because “it was good politically,” on and on and on.
Hey I’m not saying it wasn’t the worst part of the COVID years, just that it wasn’t most of the COVID era…which is even being vague as to what the COVID era is or if it even ever ended.
I’m one of the crazy people constantly masking still.
He definitely had an outsized impact on the overall COVID response in mostly negative ways. I think the only thing he did that was good is fast-tracking the vaccines and even then he managed to screw that over because of all of the other things he was doing wrong.
The 90 day pause on tariffs is doing all the heavy lifting right now. We’re going back into crisis mode in a few months.
Meanwhile, the stock market isn’t the only indicator of economic health. Mass layoffs are still happening, prices aren’t falling, inflation is still at risk to blow up again, consumer spending is down, and all the major banks are predicting a recession with better than coin flip odds.
We’re absolutely not out of the woods yet.
Almost certain that Trumspki will do something stupid soon and then more stupid shit after that. The S&P will be look like a wild roller coaster.
Shit winds are a comin
